Safaricom’s grip on Kenya’s mobile market strengthens, while broadband and mobile money shares edge lower

Safaricom increased its share of Kenya’s mobile subscription market during the fourth quarter of the 2025/26 financial year, even as its position in mobile broadband and mobile money edged lower.

Data from the Communications Authority of Kenya shows Safaricom’s share of mobile subscriptions rose from 68.9 percent in the quarter ended March to 69.8 percent in the quarter ended June. Over the same period, its mobile broadband share slipped from 64.5 percent to 64.4 percent, while its mobile money share declined from 89.1 percent to 88.8 percent.

The figures offer a more mixed picture of competition than a single mobile subscriber ranking would suggest. Safaricom gained ground in the overall mobile subscription market, while its share of two other major services remained broadly stable or moved slightly lower.

Kenya added nearly 4 million mobile subscriptions

The overall mobile market expanded substantially during the quarter, with total mobile SIM subscriptions increasing from 84.1 million to 88 million, a 4.6 percent rise.

The Communications Authority attributes part of the increase to customer win-back campaigns by operators, alongside continued expansion of mobile services. The number of mobile subscriptions reported by operators does not represent 88 million individual Kenyans, since one person can hold multiple SIM cards.

Safaricom’s higher market share therefore came within a rapidly expanding market rather than from a simple transfer of customers between operators. The company remained comfortably ahead of Airtel and other operators in the overall mobile subscription category.

That movement also differs from the previous quarter, when the market added millions of subscriptions without producing a meaningful change in the relative position of the major operators.

Broadband competition remained almost unchanged

Mobile broadband presented a different picture.

Kenya had 54.9 million mobile broadband subscriptions by the end of June, up from 52.9 million three months earlier. Safaricom’s share moved only slightly during the period, falling from 64.5 percent to 64.4 percent.

The broader data market continued to expand as smartphone adoption increased and more customers moved onto faster networks. Total mobile data subscriptions reached 64.3 million during the quarter, while mobile broadband accounted for 85.5 percent of those subscriptions.

The near-flat movement in Safaricom’s broadband share is significant because data connectivity has become a much larger part of how customers use mobile networks. The company is therefore maintaining a substantial lead in a market where the number of connections and demand for data continue to grow.

TechTrendsKE’s earlier coverage of the sector noted that subscriber growth alone provides an incomplete picture of competition. The latest figures reinforce that point, with Safaricom’s position changing differently depending on the service being measured.

M-Pesa remains highly concentrated despite a small share decline

The clearest concentration remains in mobile money.

Mobile money subscriptions increased from 53.4 million in March to 54 million in June, a 1.2 percent increase. Safaricom accounted for 88.8 percent of the market at the end of the quarter, down from 89.1 percent.

The 0.3 percentage-point decline should not be interpreted as Safaricom losing 0.3 percent of its customers. It represents a change in its share of the total subscription base, which itself expanded during the quarter.

The movement also comes against a backdrop of sustained competition from Airtel Money. Earlier Communications Authority figures showed Airtel continuing to build its position in mobile money, while Safaricom has retained a large advantage through the scale of the M-Pesa ecosystem and its established customer and agent network.

The latest quarter therefore shows incremental movement rather than a major change in the structure of Kenya’s mobile-money market.

Voice usage adds another dimension

The operator picture becomes more nuanced when actual usage is considered alongside subscriptions.

Domestic mobile voice traffic rose from 32.3 billion minutes in the third quarter to 33 billion minutes in the fourth quarter. Safaricom’s domestic voice traffic increased from about 21 billion minutes to 21.4 billion, while Airtel’s rose from about 11.3 billion to 11.5 billion.

The figures come as operators continue to compete on voice pricing and promotional offers. In July, the Competition Authority of Kenya dismissed an Airtel complaint concerning Safaricom’s discounted Tunukiwa voice promotions, finding that the offers complied with the applicable promotional framework.

The dispute illustrates how competition between the two largest operators extends beyond subscriber acquisition. Pricing, network usage and customer engagement remain important parts of the contest, particularly in voice services where operators can influence how frequently customers use their networks.

Three markets, three different pictures

Safaricom’s fourth-quarter numbers are therefore best understood across several measures rather than through its overall subscriber share alone.

Its mobile subscription share rose by 0.9 percentage points as the market expanded to 88 million subscriptions. Its mobile broadband share was virtually unchanged, while its mobile money share slipped by 0.3 percentage points as that market also grew.

The differences are relatively small in percentage terms, but they show that competition is not developing at the same pace across Kenya’s major mobile services. Safaricom continues to hold a substantial lead in all three categories, while the direction of its market share varies between basic mobile connectivity, broadband access and digital financial services.

For Kenya’s telecom market, the fourth-quarter figures provide a more detailed picture than the headline subscriber count: the market is growing, but the balance between operators depends increasingly on which part of the mobile ecosystem is being measured.

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