A new survey by TIFA Research has found that 59 percent of ride-hailing users in Nairobi oppose the government’s proposed minimum fare policy for platforms such as Uber, Bolt, Little Cab and Faras, against 39 percent who back the move.
The survey, titled Ride-Hailing Industry Survey in Kenya: Public Perception Towards the Proposed Minimum Fare Policy and released on 20 August 2026, was conducted among 733 respondents in Nairobi County between 17 and 21 July 2026, with a margin of error of 2.18 percent.
The government has proposed a minimum fare framework aimed at improving driver earnings and creating a more sustainable ride-hailing industry, moving away from the current market-determined pricing model. Under the proposal, the current minimum fare of between KSh 180 and KSh 220 would rise to a higher, government-mandated level.
According to the findings, opposition to the policy is driven less by indifference to driver welfare and more by affordability pressures on households already grappling with a high cost of living. Among those opposed, 36 percent argued that fares should be determined by the market rather than government, while another 36 percent feared the policy would make rides too expensive. Only 2 percent felt government should instead balance affordability by lowering fuel costs.
Supporters of the policy were fewer but not without rationale. Sixteen percent said drivers deserve better earnings, 12 percent felt government regulation was necessary, and 10 percent argued that higher fares were justified by better service.
Awareness of the proposal remains low, with only 27 percent of respondents saying they had heard of it before being surveyed. Among those aware, 42 percent expected it to negatively affect passengers through higher fares, while 12 percent anticipated a shift to alternative transport modes. A smaller share saw upside, with 8 percent citing improved driver earnings and another 8 percent expecting fairer, more standardised pricing.
On the broader question of fare regulation, 63 percent of respondents said fares should be determined by competition among ride-hailing companies, compared with 33 percent who favoured government regulation — a preference the survey found consistent across age groups and gender, at between 63 and 65 percent in every segment.
The findings point to a highly price-sensitive passenger base. Sixty percent of users said they would switch to alternative transport if fares rose significantly, with 44 percent saying they would turn to matatus more often. A further 22 percent said they would stick with ride-hailing but change their behaviour, either by switching to cheaper options or using the service less frequently, while only 18 percent said they would continue as usual.
The survey situates these attitudes within a wider economic squeeze on Nairobi households. Eighty-one percent of respondents identified high cost of living or constrained incomes as their biggest challenge, and the same proportion said they were very concerned about rising prices for fuel, groceries, rent and transport. TIFA’s desk research cited official price data showing diesel prices in Nairobi rose by about 30 percent and petrol by about 15 percent between June 2025 and June 2026, alongside sharp increases in staples such as tomatoes, up 41 percent, and kale, up 27 percent over the same period.
Ride-hailing itself remains deeply embedded in daily life in the capital. The average user makes 6.8 trips a month, with 72 percent of trips classified as essential travel, including commuting to work or school, business travel and shopping. TIFA’s desk research estimates the sector supports 300,000 to 350,000 active drivers nationally, generating an estimated KSh 126 billion to KSh 147 billion in annual driver earnings and indirectly supporting between 1.2 million and 1.75 million household members.
TIFA said the results point to a policy dilemma for regulators: while improving driver earnings is broadly recognised as a legitimate goal, passengers remain wary of a policy that shifts the cost of that improvement directly onto them through higher fares.
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