NCBA Leans on Digital Loans as Mobile Credit Scales Across Its Business
A slight dip in M-Shwari volumes does little to shift the broader story of expansion in NCBA’s digital lending book
NCBA Group recorded a 20.2 percent digital loans profit growth to reach Sh8.9 billion in the year ending December 2025. This performance anchored the group’s record-breaking net profit of Sh23.4 billion, a 7.0 percent increase from the previous year.
The digital segment now contributes 31.9 percent of the group’s total pre-tax profit of Sh27.89 billion, reflecting the heavy reliance of East African consumers on mobile-first credit products to fund daily operations.
The expansion was primarily led by the Fuliza overdraft service, a flagship partnership with Safaricom. Total disbursements through Fuliza hit Sh1.24 trillion for the year, a 37.8 percent jump compared to the Sh906 billion recorded in 2024.
Despite a marginal 3.0 percent dip in M-Shwari volumes to Sh96 billion, the group’s total digital lending across Kenya averaged Sh3.7 billion per day, totaling Sh1.35 trillion for the review period.
Nedbank Acquisition and Regional Scaling
The robust metrics of the digital lending engine served as the primary catalyst for the landmark takeover bid by South Africa’s Nedbank Group. In January, Nedbank announced a Sh110.4 billion offer to acquire a 66 percent controlling stake in NCBA. The transaction, which values the bank at a price-to-book ratio of 1.4x, is currently awaiting final regulatory approval from the Central Bank of Kenya, with a targeted closure in late 2026.
Beyond its domestic dominance, NCBA has scaled its digital credit models into regional markets. In Uganda and Rwanda, the MoKash platform disbursed Sh20 billion in each country, while newer entries into Ghana and Ivory Coast contributed Sh3.9 billion to the total digital book. This regional diversification helped subsidiaries outside Kenya contribute 13 percent of the group’s total profit before tax.
Dividend Payout and 2026 Strategy
Following the strong performance, the Board of Directors recommended a final dividend of Sh4.60 per share. When combined with the interim payout of Sh2.50, the total dividend for 2025 stands at Sh7.10, representing a 29.1 percent increase from 2024. This payout reflects a dividend yield of approximately 8.0 percent based on the current market price of Sh88.75.
Looking ahead, NCBA has transitioned into its next strategic cycle dubbed “Ubuntu” (2026–2030). The strategy focuses on four pillars: strengthening core banking, accelerating digital transformation, expanding regional operations, and unlocking new wealth management opportunities. The bank also intends to maintain its aggressive use of AI-driven credit scoring, which has kept its digital cost of risk at a highly efficient 0.4 percent.
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