In its Economic Outlook 2026 Report, the Mastercard Economics Institute (MEI) has revealed how global policy changes that occurred in 2025 will continue to influence economies globally throughout 2026, with growth becoming increasingly evident.
Additionally, lower inflation and increased infrastructure spending are expected to drive stronger growth across Sub-Saharan Africa in 2026.
Meanwhile, Kenya’s economy is leaning into its strengths, digital innovation and diverse trade, to keep its economy steady. As inflationary pressure appears to be moderating, the drop in the US Dollar and lower energy costs allow the Central Bank of Kenya to lower interest rates and ignite local lending.
“The economic outlook for Kenya in 2026 is broadly constructive as the country continues to demonstrate impressive adaptability in a rapidly shifting global environment. Strengthening trade ties with emerging markets is expected to support economic momentum. However, risks remain from global trade tensions and commodity price volatility, while high debt levels may limit fiscal space in some economies,” said Khatija Haque, Chief Economist, EEMEA, Mastercard Economics Institute.
Kenya’s economic sector continues to integrate Artificial Intelligence (AI), therefore boosting productivity across the sector.
“Kenya’s ability to adapt to shifting global conditions, while growing new export pathways and scaling digital adoption, demonstrates the strength of its economy. As SME innovation continues to thrive, Kenya is well-positioned to seize the opportunities of a rapidly transforming world,” noted Shehryar Ali, Senior Vice President and Country Manager for East Africa and Indian Ocean Islands at Mastercard.
The core insights from the analysis include:
Diversifying trade with emerging markets: Kenya is capitalising on the great supply chain realignment by strengthening its commercial links with Asia and the Middle East. With the shift in trade away from the Chinese Mainland, the unlocking of new pathways for African goods has accelerated. By diversifying its trade network, Kenya is building a more resilient economic operating system.
Digital transformation and fiscal expansions are among the main catalysts: The MEI shows that digital transformation, focusing mostly on AI integration, is set to bolster productivity. As African governments invest in infrastructure development and strategic investment, local businesses continue to remain agile and competitive to adapt to global economic shifts.
SMEs remaining crucial to the continent’s economy: Digital tools are becoming game-changers, turning small operations into efficient, cost-effective businesses; however, what is required for successful operation is strategy and digital readiness. Therefore, MEI recommends that SMEs continue to gain share in tech-driven services, since there is a great demand for local tech solutions.
The Economic Outlook 2026 report isn’t just a forecast; it’s data-driven research of the global economy. By leveraging aggregated and anonymized sales data, the MEI is able to highlight high-level consumer trends without compromising individual identity, with the primary motive being the estimation of economic activity globally.
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