Inside the Ethiopia Mobile Duopoly: What Ethio Telecom and Safaricom’s Next Moves Mean for the Market
In Ethiopia, the mobile duopoly consists of the state-run Ethio Telecom and privately run Safaricom Ethiopia, and it is evolving more rapidly in the country.
Both operators have made significant announcements in recent days: the launch of a national e-commerce marketplace by Ethio Telecom and a forecast of a significant improvement in the financial position of Safaricom Ethiopia.
There is some momentum-generating, but upon scrutiny, challenges emerge that question whether inclusivity, sustainability, and competition will survive.
Ethio Telecom Launches Zemen GEBEYA—But Who Really Gains?
The new platform of Ethio Telecom Zemen GEBEYA is meant to empower MSMEs through the telebirr SuperApp-integrated digital marketplace. The company describes it as a revolutionary economic activity enhancer, logistics smoothener, and digital divide bridge.
Such an optimistic consideration warrants some skeptical inquiry. Although Zemen GEBEYA is being marketed as a leap of progress, some say it is being used as a preemptive measure to cement market share prior to the establishment of the anticipated third telecom operator of Ethiopia.
With limited internet access, poor infrastructure and barriers to digital literacy hindering connectivity in rural Ethiopia, one wonders how inclusive the platform actually is.
Yet there has been no independent data about how accessible and/or impactful Zemen GEBEYA might be for the very MSMEs it wants to target. Without adoption figures and feedback from the users being made public, the narrowing of Ethiopia’s digital divide remains at best an aspiration.
Safaricom Ethiopia Narrows Losses—But At What Cost?
Safaricom Ethiopia, the half of the Ethiopia mobile duopoly, forecasts a 50% improvement in earnings this financial year. The company expects its EBIT loss in Ethiopia to shrink down to somewhere between ETB23 billion and ETB26 billion (US$171–194 million), a remarkable upsurge from last year when it recorded an ETB61 billion (US$455 million) loss.
Such a projection, however, does not account for profitability. It talks about reduced losses rather than profits. It signals momentum for investors. For Ethiopian consumers, on the other hand, it raises another set of questions-how soon will Safaricom turn its gargantuan infrastructure investments into affordable, reliable services for the everyday user?
The company indeed had tough barriers in Ethiopia—currency volatility, security issues, and inflation—but some observers made the case that it underestimated just how difficult it is to go into a tightly regulated, state-controlled market.
Competition, or Consolidation?
With the imminent establishment of a third operator in Ethiopia, the growing question is whether the current duopoly promotes or slows down progress. There has been some degree of innovation brought about by the competition between Ethio Telecom and Safaricom Ethiopia, together with their aggressive rollouts of mobile money; however, a lack of transparency in pricing, a lack of open infrastructure, and unequal regulatory oversight might rob consumers of benefits.
Regulatory clarity, infrastructure sharing, and neutral governance for platforms such as telebirr and mobile money ecosystems will decide whether Ethiopia’s telecom market evolves into true competition or remains functionally consolidated.
What the Duopoly Misses: The Consumer Voice
Ethio Telecom and Safaricom have shown that they are proud of their performance. But the Ethiopian users’ perspective is missing. How are these digital platforms actually being received? Are rural business owners using Zemen GEBEYA? Is urban clientele seeing real price competition or improvement in service?
Unless we hear from the very people who are working with these services or perhaps the ones who cannot access them, the bigger picture of what the mobile duopoly in Ethiopia really means will remain in doubt.
A Pivotal Moment with Unresolved Questions
The mobile duopoly in Ethiopia is a classic picture of transition. Ethio Telecom is pivoting toward digital commerce, and Safaricom seems to be somehow stabilizing its financial performance. Both developments are significant, but without a deeper analysis, public data, and feedback from the consumer, it would be premature to call them victories.
The actual test would be in the future: Will these stimulate a more inclusive digital economy, or will they merely impose old market dynamics in new digital clothes?
Follow us on WhatsApp, Telegram, Twitter, and Facebook, or subscribe to our weekly newsletter to ensure you don’t miss out on any future updates. Send tips to editorial@techtrendsmedia.co.ke
